Rising consumer debt, mounting refinancing pressure in commercial real estate, and increasingly opaque leverage are often discussed as separate risks. In practice, they are converging. That convergence is quietly reshaping how capital moves, how risk is filtered, and who remains legible to decision-makers when conditions tighten. For Black developers and real estate operators, these shifts matter not because fundamentals have suddenly changed, but because institutional behavior does. A credit environment that narrows, not collapses Periods of financial stress are often described as contractions. In reality, capital rarely disappears. It becomes more selective. As consumer debt rises, lenders grow more sensitive

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